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Frontrunning: January 12

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  • Earnings Pessimism Jumps as Oil Threatens S&P 500 Growth (BBG)
  • It’s Amateur Hour in the Booming Chinese Stock Market (BBG)
  • France mobilizes 10,000 troops at home after Paris shootings (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Gain With S&P 500 Futures While Oil Drops (BBG)
  • Nasdaq Looks to Operate Dark Pools for Banks (WSJ)
  • This Guy Called Bonds in ’14. You Listening This Time? (BBG)
  • Paris attacks boost support for Dutch anti-Islam populist Wilders (Reuters)
  • OPEC price war in Asia intensifies as oil falls below $50 (Reuters)
  • Kaisa Mess Adds Transparency Cost on China Fund Anxiety (BBG)
  • Goldman Sees Need for $40 Oil as OPEC Cut Forecast Abandoned (Bloomberg)
  • Fog of Legal Bills Seen Lifting at U.S. Banks as Revenue Rises (BBG) ... too bad revenue won't rise
  • Divers retrieve one AirAsia 'black box', explosion theory questioned (Reuters)
  • $50 Oil Kills Bonanza Dream That Made Greenlanders Millionaires (BBG)
  • Appaloosa Files to Put Caesars Unit in Involuntary Bankruptcy (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* France, joined by world leaders, mounted its largest-ever demonstration on Sunday in a defiant display of unity against terrorist attacks. (http://on.wsj.com/1IDBtUP)

* Tesla Motors is on a collision course with the auto industry's giants like never before, but the CEO has no plans to stop cursing or obsessing about the tiniest design details. (http://on.wsj.com/1w9mxXU)

* A cardiac-biomarker laboratory under federal investigation cut ties with its sales-and-marketing contractor, ending a joint enterprise that has collected hundreds of millions of dollars from Medicare. (http://on.wsj.com/1tYLMlv)

* Huge levels of output have helped drive commodity prices down, and many analysts believe they will stay low: Large stockpiles remain. The slump has been devastating for some producers and companies that depend on them. (http://on.wsj.com/1C69tHr)

* After years of fighting for more trading to come back onto stock exchanges, Nasdaq OMX has approached several of the biggest banks with a proposal to take over the operation of their "dark pools." (http://on.wsj.com/1FJ6DOv)

* General Motors Co plans to use its GM Financial lending arm as the exclusive provider of subsidized leases in the United States, a move that could help boost earnings while significantly increasing the Detroit auto giant's exposure to auto loans. (http://on.wsj.com/14N4zUU)

* Merck & Co has accelerated its plans to submit new drugs for hepatitis C and lung cancer for regulatory approval, in a bid to close the gap with competitors in two lucrative segments. (http://on.wsj.com/1B8p4YM)

 

FT

Proposals to stop British jihadis returning home from the Middle East are expected to result in human rights violations, MPs and peers have warned in a report by the cross-party Joint Committee on Human Rights, amid an intensifying debate over terror laws prompted by last week's attacks in Paris.

British landlords have made a profit of 177 billion pounds ($268.69 billion) from capital growth over the last five years, according to the figures from property advisers Savills, adding fuel to the political debate about rising house prices in the UK.

From April, about 6 billion pounds more than usual could be taken out of private pension plans - three times the government's official estimate - once rule changes come into force that allow people aged over 55 to withdraw their retirement savings as cash, according to research for Channel 4's Dispatches.

Graduate vacancies at the UK's biggest companies will rise 8.1 percent this year to the highest level in at least 10 years, according to an annual study of 100 leading employers by High Fliers Research indicating that Britain's top employers have drawn up their most bullish graduate recruitment plans in a decade in a sign of their growing confidence in the economic recovery.

 

NYT

* The Irish drug maker Shire Plc has agreed to acquire NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc for $5.2 billion, a deal that will allow it to move on from its botched sale to AbbVie Inc last year. (http://nyti.ms/1A6WEKm)

* Marquee Brands, a brand acquisition company set up in September by the New York-based private equity firm Neuberger Berman, is set to announce on Monday that it will acquire the Italian luxury shoe label Bruno Magli for about $34 million. (http://nyti.ms/1C687g0)

* Beer maker Newcastle Brown Ale is trying to steal the buzz from the world's richest advertising event, the Super Bowl, and give it to dozens of other marketers that aren't paying $4.5 million for 30 seconds of commercial time during the game. (http://nyti.ms/1wNXaff)

* U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday will call for federal legislation intended to force American companies to be more forthcoming when credit card data and other consumer information are lost in an online breach like the kind that hit Sony Corp, Target Corp and Home Depot Inc last year, White House officials said on Sunday. (http://nyti.ms/1DOp0wO)

* Former Federal Prosecutor David A. O'Neil will join as a partner in the Washington office of law firm Debevoise & Plimpton, where he will handle white-collar defense and cybersecurity issues, he said. (http://nyti.ms/1A6IRDB)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Linamar Corp, Canada's second-largest auto parts maker, plans to create 1,200 new jobs at its operations in Guelph, Ontario, with an investment of more than C$500 million backstopped by financial assistance from the federal government set to be unveiled on Monday. (http://bit.ly/1A7ouGp)

** U.S. energy giant Exxon Mobil Corp plans to spend up to C$25 billion on a British Columbia terminal to export liquefied natural gas, saying it has the global expertise to make the Canadian project viable. (http://bit.ly/1B9EzzR)

** Canadians need to gird for a long battle against terrorism while maintaining their unity and not singling out any religious groups for blame, Mayor John Tory and federal finance minister Joe Oliver told several hundred people demonstrating on a cold Sunday afternoon at Nathan Phillips Square in Toronto. (http://bit.ly/1A6ZeAd)

NATIONAL POST

** Security agencies were "closely monitoring" the situation after a video repeating calls by ISIS to kill Canadian civilians, police and members of the military was posted on the Internet, Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney said on Sunday. (http://bit.ly/1tYsE6U)

** Deutsche Bank's chief international economist has circulated a chart deck looking at global housing markets, and Canada stands out as having quite a few problems. According to the report, homes in Canada are 63 per cent overvalued, greater than the 50 per cent levels in Australia and Norway, Deutsche Bank AG said in a report Thursday. (http://bit.ly/1AMsS1J)

China

PEOPLE'S DAILY

- The world should unite to fight against terrorism, this mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party of China said in a comment on the unprecedented march in Paris of a million French citizens to pay tribute to victims of Islamist militant attacks last week.

CHINA DAILY

- China aims to capture a third of the global turboprop airline market with the MA700 aircraft, said a senior designer with Aviation Industry Corp of China. He said the MA700 would make its first flight in 2017 and that at least 50 planes would be made annually.

- Shanghai authorities are taking extra precautions at events that involve large crowds after the New Year Eve stampede, including cancelling a festival and limiting the number of people entering a recent job fair.

- China will update its HIV screening tests to shorten the waiting period and lower the risk of infection from transfusion, the National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention said.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

- A stock bull run last year helped many Chinese brokerages double their net profits from 2013, according to their earnings reports.

- China's recent clampdown on insider trading will improve the health of the stock market and will thus be a long-term positive factor, this official newspaper said in a commentary.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

- China's decision on Friday to launch its first ever stock options trading in February will activate trading, in particular in blue-chips.

 

Britain

The Times

Shire Plc has pledged itself to an independent future by striking a $5.2 billion deal to buy NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc, a specialist developer of medicines for rare diseases. (http://thetim.es/1snBuu5)

New rules to strengthen the UK takeover code come into effect today in the wake of Pfizer Inc's highly politicised attempt to buy its British competitor AstraZeneca Plc. (http://thetim.es/1C5i5OB)

The Guardian

Carmaker Jaguar Land Rover is creating 1,300 new jobs after announcing its newest model will be made in Britain. (http://bit.ly/1IDbSeR)

Harvest Energy service station in Birmingham is believed to be the first in the UK to slash petrol prices below the 1 pound-a-litre ($2) mark over the weekend, in a move welcomed by motoring organisations. (http://bit.ly/17ye4ZB)

The Telegraph

Quindell Plc, the troubled insurance outsourcer, will attempt to restore its reputation today by hiring a number of experienced leaders. (http://bit.ly/1C5mIZ0)

Biotech group Redx Pharma, which is backed by venture capitalist Jon Moulton, is to float on the junior Aim market in a deal valuing the Liverpool-based business at up to 80 million pounds ($121.36 million). (http://bit.ly/1smNnAp)

Sky News

The agency which represents taxpayers' stakes in Britain's bailed-out lenders is in talks with Royal Bank of Scotland Plc about a 2 billion pound capital-raising that could eventually dilute the government's shareholding. (http://bit.ly/1xXVG8b)

The former chief executive officer of Somerfield is being drafted to spearhead a 70 million pound flotation of ScS Upholstery, the furniture retailer. (http://bit.ly/1ANCDOm)

The Independent

Coca-Cola is poised to axe over 1,500 jobs in a bid to cut costs. (http://ind.pn/1I06xzC)

Circle Holdings PLC, the company running Britain's only privatised general hospital, on Monday said it was handing it back to taxpayers due to government spending cuts and the unprecedented increase of A&E (accident and emergency) patients. (http://ind.pn/17phXjG)

 

Fly On The Wall Pre-Market News

ECONOMIC REPORTS

No major domestic economic reports scheduled for today.

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Aimco (AIV) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Alaska Air (ALK) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore ISI
Alon USA Energy (ALJ) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
AvalonBay (AVB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
C.H. Robinson (CHRW) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Chesapeake (CHK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
China Mobile (CHL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
Diamond Resorts (DRII) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
First Cash Financial (FCFS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Capital
Frontier Communications (FTR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Ingersoll-Rand (IR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Knight Transportation (KNX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
LabCorp (LH) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird
Mid-America Apartment (MAA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
PACCAR (PCAR) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital
Parsley Energy (PE) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
SL Green Realty (SLG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
Solera (SLH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
Vale (VALE) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotia Capital
Windstream (WIN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

Downgrades

ADT Corp. (ADT) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
AOL (AOL) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen
Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Aruba Networks (ARUN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities
Bill Barrett (BBG) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Campbell Soup (CPB) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
ConAgra (CAG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
DCP Midstream (DPM) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Danaher (DHR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Digital Realty (DLR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
EVERTEC (EVTC) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA/Merrill
Ecopetrol (EC) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Ecopetrol (EC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Google (GOOG) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities
Government Properties (GOV) downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies
Hub Group (HUBG) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Joy Global (JOY) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Kellogg (K) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Kraft Foods (KRFT) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
MarkWest Energy (MWE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
MarkWest Energy (MWE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Marriott Vacations (VAC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
McCormick (MKC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Mondelez (MDLZ) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
NorthWestern (NWE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc
Oceaneering (OII) downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman
Porsche (POAHY) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Rice Energy (RICE) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Schlumberger (SLB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Select Medical (SEM) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Toll Brothers (TOL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc
Towers Watson (TW) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Western Refining (WNR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Wright Medical (WMGI) assumed with a Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray

Initiations

Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Charter (CHTR) initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo
On Deck Capital (ONDK) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
On Deck Capital (ONDK) initiated with a Buy at Needham
Rice Midstream (RMP)  initiated with a Buy at Goldman
Rice Midstream (RMP)  initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
Rice Midstream (RMP)  initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital
Rice Midstream (RMP) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup

COMPANY NEWS

Shire (SHPG) announced an agreement to acquire NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) for $46 per share, or $5.2B
Family Dollar (FDO), in a letter to its stockholders, urged shareholders to vote for the merger with Dollar Tree (DLTR). Family Dollar commented that “The most recent feedback that we have received from the FTC staff reaffirms the statements that we have been making for several months now about the inability of the Dollar General (DG) proposal to be consummated on the terms proposed by Dollar General and the certainty of the Dollar Tree merger. This existing economic analysis by the FTC will be refined in certain respects, but we see no basis to believe that, taken together, these refinements will result in a final divestiture number anywhere near the 1,500 stores that Dollar General has offered to divest"
Express (EXPR) lowered Q4 SSS view to down 3%-4% from mid to high single digit decline
Kellogg (K) announced it expects to acquire an 85.93% stake in Bisco Misr based upon the number of shares tendered to the company through the Egyptian Stock Exchange as of the close of Kellogg's Mandatory Tender Offer yesterday
Foundation Medicine (FMI) and Roche (RHHBY) announced that they will enter into a broad strategic collaboration. Roche is committing to R&D funding of potentially more than $150M for a minimum of five years and will contribute its expertise and breadth in oncology. Foundation Medicine will continue to operate independently and will contribute its experience in the development of comprehensive genomic profiling tests for oncology. The initial focus of the R&D collaboration will be on developing genomic profile tests for cancer immunotherapies and for continuous blood-based monitoring

EARNINGS

Wright Medical (WMGI) sees Q4 revenue $83.3M, consensus $84.41M, sees FY14 revenue $298M, consensus $299.18M
Tornier (TRNX) sees FY14 revenue $345.4M, consensus $338.83M
Express (EXPR) raises Q4 EPS view to 43c-46c from 38c-45c, raises FY14 EPS view to 74c-77c from 69c-76c
Tornier (TRNX) sees Q4 revenue $92.8M, consensus 86.95M
Affymetrix (AFFX) sees Q4 revenue $93M, consensus $89.94M, sees FY14 revenue $348M, consensus $345.5M
Foundation Medicine (FMI) reports preliminary Q4 revenue $18.7M, consensus $17.51M
AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG)  sees Q4 revenue $52.8M-$54.5M, sees 2014 revenue $123.8M-$125.5M, sees 2015 total revenue $380M-$420M
Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) sees 2014 adjusted EPS $1.42-$1.47. The company sees 2015 revenue $510M-$540M, consensus $486.25M, and sees Q1 revenue $90M-$105M
Christopher & Banks (CBK) sees Q4 revenue $96M-$98M, consensus $96.93M

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

RBS (RBS) in discussions to retreat from Asia operations, Financial Times reports
Sony/ATV (SNE) CEO Bandier says music business not for sale, NY Post reports
General Motors (GM) plans to launch $30K EV rival to Tesla, WSJ reports
Sony (SNE) being investigated by SEC for bribery in China, WSJ reports
20 state AGs join antitrust investigation of Family Dollar (FDO) merger, Retuers says (DLTR, DG)
Starbucks (SBUX) removes Tazo tea from outlets, Reuters reports
Best Buy (BBY) shares could rise over 20%, Barron's says
Regeneron (REGN) has 25% upside potential, Barron's reports
Discovery (DISCA) could rise over 25%, Barron's says

SYNDICATE

American Midstream Partners (AMID) files to sell 6.89M common units
Biocept (BIOC) files to sell $15M of common stock
Cellectar Biosciences (CLRB) files $5M mixed securities shelf
FuelCell (FCEL) files to sell 14.64M shares of common stock for holders
Ikanos (IKAN) files to sell 16.93M shares of common stock for holders
Southwestern Energy (SWN) files to sell 20.3M shares of stock, 26M depository shares
Zafgen (ZFGN) files to sell 2.5M shares of common stock


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